Jumat, 26 November 2010

Impacts of climate change


Business risks
Meeting growing energy demand will require navigating a host of risks — technological, political, regulatory, social, environmental, and physical. Since ExxonMobil’s operations include activities in a variety of environments, severe weather events can disrupt supplies or interrupt operations. While current scientific understanding of climate change provides limited guidance on how the risks of weather extremes may change in the future, we manage these risks through robust design and operations contingency planning.
Due to concerns over the risks of climate change, a number of countries have adopted, or are considering the adoption of, regulatory frameworks to reduce GHG emissions, including cap and trade regimes, carbon taxes, increased efficiency standards, and incentives or mandates for renewable energy. When adopted, related requirements could increase our compliance costs for monitoring or reducing GHG emissions, raise the cost of energy across the economy, and shift energy demand to less carbon-intensive energy sources. International accords and underlying regional and national regulations for GHG reduction are evolving with uncertain timing and outcome, making it difficult to predict their business impact. We test a range of potential costs for energy-related GHG emissions in our long-term Outlook for Energy which is used for assessing the business environment and in our investment evaluations. Through 2030, the Outlook anticipates significant growth in global energy demand including oil and natural gas. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing major energy source, and ExxonMobil is well-positioned to help meet this demand.
Public policy debate
ExxonMobil is engaged in the public discussion to create national and international policies to address climate change risks. Recognizing the long-term nature of these risks, the climate policy debate has shifted from a focus on near-term emissions targets to include targets for longer-term stabilization of GHG concentrations.
The international negotiations to develop a post-2012 framework for international cooperation have highlighted many aspects of the climate policy challenge. Steps to reduce risks will require the broad deployment of currently noncommercial technologies, requiring massive investments globally. Designing equitable policies to limit emissions and to create acceptable frameworks for the massive investments and financial transfers has been, and will continue to be, contentious.
Our scientists, engineers, and management participate in research and assessment activities such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We also work with legislative and regulatory processes around the globe to assist in the design of practical, cost-effective ways to implement climate policies.
Carbon tax
Throughout the world, policymakers are considering a variety of legislative and regulatory options to address the risks of climate change. ExxonMobil believes that any cost policymakers put on GHG emissions should be uniform across the economy and predictable over time. It is important to allow this cost to drive the development and selection of steps to reduce emissions, rather than having governments select solutions. We believe an economy-wide, revenue-neutral GHG tax is the most transparent, efficient, and cost-effective way to establish such a cost at a national level. This tax, sometimes referred to as a carbon tax, could be tailored to specific national circumstances and could form a transparent basis for equitable international efforts to mitigate emissions. In any national program, the initial tax profile should be periodically adjusted to reflect new scientific knowledge of climate change risks, technological developments, policy experience, and the evolution of international cooperation.

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